Welcome

Welcome to Jameson, Miller & Green's basketball picks.  College Basketball was the first system I built to break down the games.  With 351 teams it was a necessity as it's virtually impossible to keep up with every team while holding down a full time job, and dating.  I've been modifying and updating my system for the past 3 years, and I will continue to make minor tweaks as I see fit.  I have over 5,000 games logged in my database that I use for comparison purposes.

My system is unique as it doesn't matter which teams are playing, it's blind to that.  What matters is the performance of the line value.  It all starts with an offensive and defensive efficiency calculation, that I have for each team.  I adjust those ratings based on whether the team is playing at home or away.  I then compare that figure to the current line posted in Vegas, which is what I call the line value.  When I first started this I operated under the assumption that a positive line value meant an opportunity to win, that wasn't always right.  I then thought the higher the value the better, and again that wasn't always right.  The bottom line is, every game is an opportunity to win or lose.  I just needed to figure out a way to minimize the losing, and play the winning angles.  So I started logging every game played, and tracked how well the line value did.

I then realized that there were different scenarios where a number could be good while overall the number isn't that impressive.  Whether a team is home/away or favorite/underdog and a combination of those 2 groups play an important part in what game you choose to play.  For instance say Duke and Wisconsin are playing, and I have a line value of 2 on Duke.  The past performance of 2 overall is 51.3%, that's not good.  But digging deeper I see that Duke is at home and is a favorite.  Well a home favorite with a line value of 2 has a win percentage of 58.4%, that's much better and a scenario you want to consider to bet on.  Remember you only have to win 53% of the bets you place in order to make money.

After I figured out the different scenarios and win percentages, I needed more.  I wanted to know how close the games were.  I mean a line variance could have a 59% win percentage, but if the average win margin is less than 1 point, then you probably want to avoid as their is a high probability that the win percentage will drop soon, and your bankroll right along with it.  So I added in calculation that will tell me the cover/loss amount for each scenario to go along with the win/loss percentage.  Now we were cooking with gas.  I also added in a game count for each scenario, because a large sample size is a good indicator of future performance, while a small sample size is still vulnerable to large fluctuations.

Finally after I got a couple of seasons of data inputted, I wanted to be able to look at the current season separately from the overall results.  I did this for the fact that a line value could have a 53% win percentage overall, but this season it's at 62%, so each this season is raising the overall into betting angles.  So for each game I look at the line value for each game for overall results, home/away results, favorite/underdog results, and then home favorite/home dog/road favorite/road dog situational results.  That's 4 different results for each game, and I look at those for the entire database, last seasons performance and current season performance.

Oh I also keep track of ATS records for each team, and each of the situations mentioned above.  The combination of knowing if it's a good number, and how well each team performs gives an exceptional insight into whether you're on the right side or not.  I also look at these for overall, last season and current season.

It's a fun little system that has generated money in my pocket for the past 2 seasons.  It is that reason I decided to share, so you can get in on the action yourself, and place bets with confidence instead of guessing.  To me, it's not gambling, rather it's a calculated risk.  Now I still go on streaks of wins and losses, but for the whole season I've ended in the black.

I'm working on a way to be able to provide each days games in an excel spreadsheet to all of you, so you can make your own decisions.  However, I'm still trying to figure out this whole website management/building thing, so until I can figure it out I'm just going to provide a list of games that I'm taking and a level of confidence, a.k.a, how much to wager.  There are certain criteria that I use to determine a "max game" and in those instances I bet the maximum I can on that game, or the maximum my bankroll can manage.  I've won around 85% of those games, and they pay off nicely.  I hope you get the same results.  Good luck this season.