College Basketball Nov 30th

Yesterday we closed out the first week with a 3-3 record, but still won 58% of the bets last week thanks to a smoking hot start.  Not many games today, but a few goodies.

My picks are the teams with the line after them, and I usually put them first.  I'll include the line whether they're giving or getting points.

Tennessee Chattanooga (-2) at Louisiana Monroe

Fresno State (+11.5) at Oregon

LSU (-5) at College of Charleston

Good luck today, and check out my other blog for some free picks for NFL action today.

College Basketball Nov 29th

Yesterday was a disappointing day with a 4-6 record.  I've decided to eliminate the levels all together, if I find something that should be hit a little harder I will mention it, but just stick to betting the same amount on each game, it helps with bankroll management, and doesn't provide as many fluctuations in your results.  Anyways, more games are ready for today, and I have a few picks for you.

My picks are the teams with the line after them, and I usually put them first.  I'll include the line whether they're giving or getting points.

Duke (-17.5) vs Utah State

Cal State Northridge (+17) at UCLA

Mercer (-2) at Western Michigan

Wichita State (+5) vs Iowa - neutral site

Santa Clara (+6) vs Boston College - neutral site

Providence (+8) vs Michigan State - neutral site

Good luck today, and check out my other blog for some free picks for NFL action today.

College Basketball Nov 28th

Yesterday was the first losing day I've had in giving picks, but I really didn't expect to continue winning at a 71% rate anyway.  That was yesterday and this is today, a full slate of basketball is on the docket, and I found some good ones.  I have 10 picks for you.  Good Luck

My picks are the teams with the line after them, and I usually put them first.  I'll include the line whether they're giving or getting points.

Georgia (+3) at Seton Hall - Level 2

Bradley (+9) vs Mississippi - Level 1

South Dakota (+6.5) at Sacramento State - Level 1

Youngstown State (+4) at Niagara - Level 1

Manhattan (+8.5) at Fordham - Level 1

Southern Utah (+9) at Eastern Kentucky - Level 2

Montana State (+9) at Wyoming - Level 1

Eastern Washington (+3) vs Pacific - Level 2

George Washington (+5.5) vs Cincinnati - Level 1

Illinois (+9.5) vs Iowa State - Level 1


Here are the dollar figures for the different levels as a reminder.

Bet Levels:
Level 1 - Minimum Bet (half your normal bet, for a $100 player, only $50)
Level 2 - Normal Bet
Level 3 - 1.5x your normal bet
Level 4 - 2 times your normal bet
Level 5 - Max Bet

updated college basketball Nov 27th

This is updated from the previous blog below.  A few more lines became available and I found 3 more that are worth your attention.  Unfortunately I was on a flight and couldn't get posted in time for all 3, so you'll miss out on the Gonzaga game.

Gonzaga (-3.5) vs Connecticut - Level 3

Syracuse (+6) vs Texas A&M - Level 3

Boise State (+9.5) vs Michigan State - Level 1

below is the original blog.  Good luck today.

A slow day on Thanksgiving without many options, but still managed a 2-1 record.  All bets yesterday were level 2 bets.  I want to apologize, as I've been conservative and recommending a lot of level 1 bets as I juggle football and basketball.  If you would've bet 100 on each game you'd be up a lot more money, but we're still winning money so fuck it., but the only thing better than winning money is winning more money.  Of course, you can bet however much you want on these games, I'm just giving recommendations.  I have 4 picks for today, and they are split between level 1 and level 2 bets.  Here are the picks.  In case I haven't pointed this out, and it's not obvious, my picks are the teams with the line after them, and I usually put them first.  I'll include the line whether they're giving or getting points.

Ohio State (-1) vs Memphis - Level 1

Jacksonville State (-5) vs Chicago - Level 2

Colorado State (-6.5) vs Portland - Level 2

Cincinnati (-14.5) vs Nebraska - Level 1


Here are the dollar figures for the different levels as a reminder.

Bet Levels:
Level 1 - Minimum Bet (half your normal bet, for a $100 player, only $50)
Level 2 - Normal Bet
Level 3 - 1.5x your normal bet
Level 4 - 2 times your normal bet
Level 5 - Max Bet

College Basketball Nov 27th

A slow day on Thanksgiving without many options, but still managed a 2-1 record.  All bets yesterday were level 2 bets.  I want to apologize, as I've been conservative and recommending a lot of level 1 bets as I juggle football and basketball.  If you would've bet 100 on each game you'd be up a lot more money, but we're still winning money so fuck it., but the only thing better than winning money is winning more money.  Of course, you can bet however much you want on these games, I'm just giving recommendations.  I have 4 picks for today, and they are split between level 1 and level 2 bets.  Here are the picks.  In case I haven't pointed this out, and it's not obvious, my picks are the teams with the line after them, and I usually put them first.  I'll include the line whether they're giving or getting points.

Ohio State (-1) vs Memphis - Level 1

Jacksonville State (-5) vs Chicago - Level 2

Colorado State (-6.5) vs Portland - Level 2

Cincinnati (-14.5) vs Nebraska - Level 1


Here are the dollar figures for the different levels as a reminder.

Bet Levels:
Level 1 - Minimum Bet (half your normal bet, for a $100 player, only $50)
Level 2 - Normal Bet
Level 3 - 1.5x your normal bet
Level 4 - 2 times your normal bet
Level 5 - Max Bet

College Basketball November 26

Another good day yesterday with a 5-2 overall record.  The level 2 bets were 1-1, the level 3 bets were 2-1 and the level 1 bets went 2-0.  Back at it today with some more games, all games today are level 2 bets.  Here are the picks, good luck.

East Carolina (+4.5) vs Arkansas Little Rock - Level 2

Michigan State (-15) vs Boston College - Level 2

Providence (-2) vs Evansville - Level 2


Here are the dollar figures for the different levels as a reminder.

Bet Levels:
Level 1 - Minimum Bet (half your normal bet, for a $100 player, only $50)
Level 2 - Normal Bet
Level 3 - 1.5x your normal bet
Level 4 - 2 times your normal bet
Level 5 - Max Bet

College Basketball November 25

Good day yesterday with a 7-2 overall record.  The level 2 bets were 2-0 and the level 1 bets went 5-2.  A couple of games were close, but close only counts in horse shoes and hand grenades, so a win is a win.  Back at it today with some more games, across levels 1, 2 and 3.  Here are the picks.

Wisconsin Milwaukee (-2) vs Central Michigan - level 1

Duquesne (-2) vs Western Kentucky - Level 3

Michigan (+4.5) vs Connecticut - Level 3

Cleveland State (+12) vs South Dakota State - Level 1

Rhode Island (+5.5) vs Maryland - Level 2

Creighton (-4) vs Massachusetts - Level 2

Clemson (-12) vs Rutgers - Level 3

Here are the value for the different levels as a reminder.

Bet Levels:
Level 1 - Minimum Bet (half your normal bet, for a $100 player, only $50)
Level 2 - Normal Bet
Level 3 - 1.5x your normal bet
Level 4 - 2 times your normal bet
Level 5 - Max Bet

College Basketball 11/24/15

Updated to include additional selections after all neutral site games were posted.

Well yesterday was a tricky start to the season.  Sure the picks went 3-2, but my level 3 game of NC State was a loser, so not a positive in bank account.  That’s the hard part about having level betting, lose a higher valued wager and chances are you’re not going to make money that day.  That’s why I always try to bet the same amount on every game, and I really didn’t want to include the level betting.  However, NC State had a 75% chance of covering yesterday based on historical results, so I thought it was worth a few extra bucks.  I have been in football mode, and am having some trouble of flipping the switch to basketball.  Due to these reasons, I am going to mostly recommend level 1 bets for the time being, at least until I can hire someone to help me, or college football is over and I have more time to dedicate to basketball. 

Today is another day though, and with each new day come new opportunities.  Because of the tournaments being played all over the place, and without having certain matchups not all games today have lines posted.  However, I have found a few games that I like out of the lines posted so far, and here they are.

TCU (+6.5) vs Rhode Island – Level 1

Maryland (-10) vs Illinois State – Level 1

Cleveland State (+6) vs Rider – Level 1

Valparaiso (+3.5) at Oregon State – Level 1

Wisconsin Milwaukee (+3) vs Duquesne - Level 1 (Milwaukee +2 is fine too, this line is moving fast)

Weber State (-5) vs Drake - Level 2

Kansas (-9) vs UCLA - Level 2

Northwestern (-7.5) vs Missouri - Level 1

Idaho (+1.5) vs Troy - Level 1

That’s it for now, but check back later for updates as more lines are posted for todays game.  As a reminder here are the bet levels.

Bet Levels:
Level 1 - Minimum Bet (half your normal bet, for a $100 player, only $50)
Level 2 - Normal Bet
Level 3 - 1.5x your normal bet
Level 4 - 2 times your normal bet
Level 5 - Max Bet

College Basketball Picks for 11/23/2015

Okay, so here are my first picks posted for the college basketball season.  Yes I know the season started 10 days ago, but I've been busy retooling my system, and giving away all those college football and NFL picks.  Anyways, here are my picks for today and the level in which I like them at.  The bet levels are posted on the web site at https://www.jamesonmillergreen.com/basketball.html and also on the basketball free picks page.  I will include them here for a short period of time as a reminder.


Bet Levels:
Level 1 - Minimum Bet (half your normal bet, for a $100 player, only $50)
Level 2 - Normal Bet
Level 3 - 1.5x your normal bet
Level 4 - 2 times your normal bet
Level 5 - Max Bet


Here are the picks:

North Carolina State (-1.5) vs Arizona State (neutral site) - Level 3
Kansas State (-5.5) vs Missouri (neutral site) - Level 1
Rutgers (+12.5) vs Creighton (neutral site) - Level 1
Belmont (-10.5) vs South Alabaman (neutral site) - Level 1
Tennessee Chattanooga (+16) at Iowa State - Level 1

Welcome

Welcome to Jameson, Miller & Green's basketball picks.  College Basketball was the first system I built to break down the games.  With 351 teams it was a necessity as it's virtually impossible to keep up with every team while holding down a full time job, and dating.  I've been modifying and updating my system for the past 3 years, and I will continue to make minor tweaks as I see fit.  I have over 5,000 games logged in my database that I use for comparison purposes.

My system is unique as it doesn't matter which teams are playing, it's blind to that.  What matters is the performance of the line value.  It all starts with an offensive and defensive efficiency calculation, that I have for each team.  I adjust those ratings based on whether the team is playing at home or away.  I then compare that figure to the current line posted in Vegas, which is what I call the line value.  When I first started this I operated under the assumption that a positive line value meant an opportunity to win, that wasn't always right.  I then thought the higher the value the better, and again that wasn't always right.  The bottom line is, every game is an opportunity to win or lose.  I just needed to figure out a way to minimize the losing, and play the winning angles.  So I started logging every game played, and tracked how well the line value did.

I then realized that there were different scenarios where a number could be good while overall the number isn't that impressive.  Whether a team is home/away or favorite/underdog and a combination of those 2 groups play an important part in what game you choose to play.  For instance say Duke and Wisconsin are playing, and I have a line value of 2 on Duke.  The past performance of 2 overall is 51.3%, that's not good.  But digging deeper I see that Duke is at home and is a favorite.  Well a home favorite with a line value of 2 has a win percentage of 58.4%, that's much better and a scenario you want to consider to bet on.  Remember you only have to win 53% of the bets you place in order to make money.

After I figured out the different scenarios and win percentages, I needed more.  I wanted to know how close the games were.  I mean a line variance could have a 59% win percentage, but if the average win margin is less than 1 point, then you probably want to avoid as their is a high probability that the win percentage will drop soon, and your bankroll right along with it.  So I added in calculation that will tell me the cover/loss amount for each scenario to go along with the win/loss percentage.  Now we were cooking with gas.  I also added in a game count for each scenario, because a large sample size is a good indicator of future performance, while a small sample size is still vulnerable to large fluctuations.

Finally after I got a couple of seasons of data inputted, I wanted to be able to look at the current season separately from the overall results.  I did this for the fact that a line value could have a 53% win percentage overall, but this season it's at 62%, so each this season is raising the overall into betting angles.  So for each game I look at the line value for each game for overall results, home/away results, favorite/underdog results, and then home favorite/home dog/road favorite/road dog situational results.  That's 4 different results for each game, and I look at those for the entire database, last seasons performance and current season performance.

Oh I also keep track of ATS records for each team, and each of the situations mentioned above.  The combination of knowing if it's a good number, and how well each team performs gives an exceptional insight into whether you're on the right side or not.  I also look at these for overall, last season and current season.

It's a fun little system that has generated money in my pocket for the past 2 seasons.  It is that reason I decided to share, so you can get in on the action yourself, and place bets with confidence instead of guessing.  To me, it's not gambling, rather it's a calculated risk.  Now I still go on streaks of wins and losses, but for the whole season I've ended in the black.

I'm working on a way to be able to provide each days games in an excel spreadsheet to all of you, so you can make your own decisions.  However, I'm still trying to figure out this whole website management/building thing, so until I can figure it out I'm just going to provide a list of games that I'm taking and a level of confidence, a.k.a, how much to wager.  There are certain criteria that I use to determine a "max game" and in those instances I bet the maximum I can on that game, or the maximum my bankroll can manage.  I've won around 85% of those games, and they pay off nicely.  I hope you get the same results.  Good luck this season.